Number of people at high risk of fracture set to double by 2040 – global implications

There will be dramatic increase in the burden of fragility fractures in the next three decades, says UK research published in Osteoporosis International.
The study is the first to estimate the global burden of disease in terms of fracture probability. Experts worked out the number of people worldwide aged 50 years or more at high risk of fracture in 2010 and projected figures for 2040.

Key findings:
• In 2010, at total of 158 million people (137 million women and 21 million men aged 50 years or more) had a fracture probability at or above the high-risk threshold;
• Globally, 18.2% of women and 3.1% of men had a fracture probability above the fracture threshold;
• The number of people at high risk of fracture is expected to double by 2040, increasing to approximately 319 million. Increases are across all regions, but particularly marked in Africa and South America;
• Asia will have the highest proportion of the global burden, with 73 million women and 11 million men at high risk.

“Due to demographic changes, we will see an enormous increase in the aged population worldwide,” explains Prof John Kanis, co-author of the study. “This new data suggests that individuals with a high probability of osteoporotic fractures will comprise a very significant disease burden to society in the coming decades. Healthcare systems, particularly in Asia, should prepare for a two-fold increase in the number of fracture patients, and with it increased long-term disability and dependency in the older population.”

Click here to read the original research.

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